In 2021, The Economist called Taiwan ‘the most dangerous place on earth’. For the island’s 23 million people, that danger isn’t abstract; it’s a daily reality shaped by the shadow of conflict. This report unpacks the complex and often misunderstood story of China and Taiwan: their complicated history, the shifting currents of public opinion, and the ways both governments prepare for conflict. It explores how Beijing increasingly wields military pressure against Taiwan and confronts the biggest question of all: what happens if China decides to seize the island by force?

The People’s Republic of China (PRC), ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from Beijing, views Taiwan as simultaneously already an inalienable part of China and also a territory destined to come under Beijing’s control when so-called ‘separatists’ and ‘foreign forces’ are overcome.  

President Xi Jinping calls the island the ‘core of the core’ of China’s interests, framing unification as essential to his vision of national rejuvenation. In contrast, the Republic of China (ROC), ruled from Taipei in Taiwan, has its own Constitution, democratically elected leaders and a nation-building history.