On 5 March 2026, ASPI conducted a series of war games exploring how President Xi Jinping may use his defence and security agencies to expand China’s influence across the Indo-Pacific.
We explored three scenarios: a linear trajectory out to 2031 and 2036, and an accelerated trajectory, to understand China’s possible actions and regional responses. The findings were published as a four-part series in ASPI’s The Strategist in April 2026.
- Expanding frontiers: China’s military push beyond the first island chain
- Expanding frontiers: how China normalises its presence
- Expanding frontiers: how China’s outward push could cause friction
- Expanding frontiers: what happens if Beijing accelerates its Indo-Pacific push
The following analysis explores what future scenarios in the South West Pacific, Indian Ocean and around Australia could look like.
