2.3.4

Invasion

Soldiers of the Chinese PLA

According to the US Central Intelligence Agency, Xi Jinping has directed the PLA to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. That doesn’t necessarily mean Beijing will launch an invasion in that year, but rather that China’s armed forces should be capable of carrying one out if ordered to do so. Unlike in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China can’t simply advance across a land border. Taiwan is separated from the mainland by the Taiwan Strait, which is 130  kilometres wide at its narrowest point.

China could mask preparations for an invasion by presenting them as large-scale joint exercises. Previous drills have already included missile units, marines and naval forces, strategic bombers, fighter jets, cyber elements and logistics units. If Xi were to give the order, the opening phase would be likely to begin with a massive missile barrage against Taiwan’s air bases, radar sites, naval ports and command centres. At the same time, the PLA Air Force would launch waves of fighters, drones and bombers to suppress Taiwan’s air defences, while amphibious and airborne units advance from China’s eastern seaboard.

The opening days of such a conflict would almost certainly bring intense, brutal fighting as Taiwan’s military attempted to repel the assault. The human and strategic costs would be immense on both sides. If the US chose to intervene, the crisis could escalate rapidly, pushing the world to the brink of a global conflict.

China's goals:

Justify an invasion and complete force preparations.

Tab 1
Announcement
A senior CCP spokesperson declares that Taiwan’s government has crossed a ‘red line’ by pursuing independence.
Exercises
The PLA intensifies routine drills around Taiwan, including live-fire naval exercises, cyber defence training and amphibious landings on Chinese-held islands.
Preparation
Amphibious assault ships, missile launchers and aircraft are repositioned under the cover of ongoing drills. Field hospitals and medical personnel deploy near embarkation points and military airfields. A PLA carrier group sails toward Taiwan’s western approaches, while submarines and other naval assets move into position east and south of the island. Nuclear forces begin signalling a deterrent posture.
Cyberattacks
Coordinated intrusions target Taiwan’s command-and-control networks, power grids and critical infrastructure. At the same time, disinformation floods Taiwanese social media with false narratives to spread panic and mistrust.
Phase 1:
One week before invasion

China's goals:

Launch a full-scale military assault on Taiwan.

Tab 1
Announcement
The CCP Politburo declares that China has initiated a ‘limited domestic operation’ to restore peace, crush separatists and reunify the motherland. Beijing warns foreign governments not to interfere.
Barrage
The PLA Rocket Force unleashes saturation missile strikes against Taiwan’s air bases, radar stations, naval ports and command centres. Waves of fighters, drones and bombers follow to suppress Taiwan’s air defences.
Assault
Amphibious landings begin along Taiwan’s southwestern coast. Airborne units are dropped behind defensive lines to seize airports, bridges and communications hubs. Special forces and pre-positioned networks on the island conduct sabotage.
Blockade
The PLA Navy establishes a maritime exclusion zone around Taiwan. Carrier strike groups and submarines patrol the strait and Taiwan’s eastern seaboard to deter or intercept potential US and Japanese reinforcements.
Phase 2:
Invasion day
China’s excessive claims and sensitive areas

Next chapter:

2.4

How is Taiwan responding to China’s aggression